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Liquidity and the Pandemic

Liquidity and the Pandemic

Abundant Cash Is Not Cash Available Abundantly The pandemic, Fed interest rate policy and bond purchases, restrictive bankingregulations, and banks’ swelling cash balances will have a lingering impact on liquidityand produce some mind-bending policies to deal with...
Market Flash 04/06/2021

Market Flash 04/06/2021

More volatility. Less predictability. S&P 500 stock market values are experiencing the same volatility as the first half of2020, the start of the Covid-19 pandemic (based on the 50 largest value movements as apercentage of the index’s total market value)....
Lessons from Archegos

Lessons from Archegos

The Archegos implosion teaches the same lessons that apparently need to be taught over and over again. High leverage eventually brings margin calls.Margin calls equal disaster.Margin calls come when too much leverage is attached to securities linked to market...
Time to Worry

Time to Worry

When Everything is Going Great, It Probably Isn’t. Gradually, Then Suddenly Things can only get better from here…said the turkey the day before Thanksgiving It might be time to start worrying about tech-stock valuations. Usually all it takes is a few overly...

A New Investment Outlook

Is It Really Different This Time?Well, sort of – and that makes all the difference.Interest rates are at zero, and worldwide markets assume that will change little for sometime to come. Global coordinated monetary and fiscal policy are spiraling interest ratesto this...

Uncertainty and Prediction

Uncertainty and PredictionThe Web of WebsThe world economy is in infinitely complicated web of interconnections. We eachexperience a series of direct economic interrelationships: the stores we buy from, theemployer that pays us our salary, the bank that gives us a...